Daily Risk Analysis: 2026-02-04

Executive Summary: The calculated risk index is 40/100 (Elevated). Heightened rhetorical noise or market anomaly detected.

Sources & Signals

The following open-source intelligence items triggered the conflict algorithm today:

• "China aggression renews question of whether Trump would defend Taiwan with US military - Small Wars Journal"
• "Taiwan: Why an invasion threatens a multi-front war - Table.Briefings"
• "Xi’s Military Purge Makes War Over Taiwan More Likely - World Politics Review"